李财有方: 借钱不必还？ 负债200万，年率4%，每年要付的利息是8万元。 负债400万，年率2%，每年要付的利息是8万元。 负债800万，年率1%，每年要付的利息是8万元。 以上这堆数目告诉我们什么？ 它告诉我们，如果利率的走向是越走越低，那么负债就可以越来越多，只要能够使到利率从8%下到1%，负债100万和负债800万是没有差别的，因为要付的利息同样都是每年8万元。 30年前，银行的定期存款利息都是在8%以上，最近几年才出现超低的利率，存款利息跌到目前的2%，在马来西亚算是空前的杰作了。 为什么利率会越来越低呢？ 那得感谢欧美国家，尤其是美国，因为它们为了刺激经济繁荣，每年的财政预算案都是入不敷出，不敷的数额就靠借贷来充数，目前几乎每个国家都仿效这一招，因为它可以刺激国家经济欣欣向荣。 利率越来越低 就好像上面所述的例子，如果一个人可以从负债100万变成负债800万，那么，在这过程中他就必须花掉700百万，想想看，这笔消费是多么的壮观，它为经济带来的贡献是多么的惊人。 正常人是不可能这样消费的，而且也没有人会借钱给你，让你无止境的消费，但是，在现实中，一个国家却可以这样的消费，美国就是一个很好的例子，它可以无止境的发行债券，而且不必担心无法偿还利息，因为它可以控制利率的走向，可以这么说，美国联储局决定了全世界利率的走向。 美国的负债是世界之最，由欠债最多的国家来决定利率的走向，结果，当然是超低的利率了。 利率往下走，迟早也是会走到极限，因为利率不可以下到零或负数，要不然就没有人要存钱了，没有人存钱，欠债人就糟糕了，要去哪里找钱还给人家呢？ 现在，利率已经到了退无可退的地步，所以问题就来了，欧元危机就是一个例子。 当一个孩子习惯了入不敷出的生活，老爸突然宣布，从今天起，你不可以再这样的消费了，你要量入为出，不可以再跟我借钱了，而且要慢慢的把欠我的钱还给我。 你说这个孩子该怎么办呢？ 就算这孩子有能力做到量入为出，他也是无法把欠老爸的钱给还清的，换句话说，那笔欠老爸的钱是遥遥无期了……老爸当然不可能说：这笔帐你就不必还了。 老爸唯一可以说的是：就给你欠着先，将来有钱才慢慢的还。 今天，银行的存款利息这么低，那是因为有太多的国家欠太多的钱了，为了拯救这些国家免于破产，利率就有必要压得低低，这样，负债累累的国家才免于破产，灾难才不会发生。 美永不会破产 幸亏美国是永远不会破产的国家，所以世界经济才不会跟着破产。 为什么美国就算负债累累它也不会破产呢？ 理由很简单，那是因为它只欠人家美元，不是其他国家的货币，而且全世界只有一个国家可以印刷美元，那就是它自己。就是这个理由，美国政府发行的债券永远都是最高的AAA评级。 接受这个残酷的现实，为了拯救负债人免于破产，银行的利息是不可能升高了，银行存款利息如果要想回升到以前的8%，短期之内应该是没有希望的了。 怎样扭转这负债累累的局势呢？ 除非欠债人能够突然转性，从挥霍变成节俭，而且有能力清还以前的债务。 但是，如果每个人都同时要把挥霍的生活习惯改为节俭，经济怎么成长呢？ 这就是问题的所在，所以别指望太高的成长率，那是不切实际的。 全世界都希望节俭的中国人可以改变生活习惯，拼命消费，不要再储蓄，然后欧美国家的人民也改变生活习惯，努力的节俭，不要再挥霍，然后清还以前的债务，那么，世界的经济就可以继续成长，全球经济才有机会脱离困境，不必步入衰退或萧条。 但是，人类的生活习惯真的可以这么容易就改变吗？ 有人说，不必担心，中国的富二代可以完成这个不可能的任务。 你相信吗？ （作者为大马著名理财专家） Chinese to English translation (by Google Translate)  Show romanizationLiabilities 1 million, annual rate of 8%, to pay the interest each year is 80,000 yuan. Liabilities 2,000,000, 4% annual rate, the interest paid each year is 80,000 yuan. Liabilities 4 million, annual rate of 2% per year to pay interest is 80,000 yuan. Liabilities 8,000,000, an annual rate of 1% annual interest to pay is 80,000 yuan. The number above this pile to tell us? It tells us that if the trend is going further and further lower interest rates, then debt can be more and more, so long as they can under the interest rate from 8% to 1%, liabilities 1,000,000 and liabilities of the 8 million is no difference, because Interest paid 80,000 yuan each year are the same. 30 years ago, the bank time deposit rates are above 8%, only appeared in recent years, low interest rates, deposit interest rates fell to 2% of the current, unprecedented in Malaysia, considered a masterpiece. Why interest rates will become increasingly low? That thanks to European and American countries, especially the U.S., because they stimulate the (economy) Jing Ji Wei Liao prosperity, 每年 Dushi (Years of) Budget deficits, inadequate for Shue to Kaojiedailai filled up (deficits cover by loan), Muqian (Now) almost every country to follow this move because it can to stimulate national economic prosperity. Getting lower and lower interest rates Like the example mentioned above, if a person can become debt liabilities 1,000,000 to 8,000,000, then, in the process he has to spend 7 million Think about how this consumption is spectacular, it economic benefit to how amazing. Normal is not possible consumption, but no one will lend you money, so you endless consumption, but in reality, it can be a country of consumption, the U.S. is a good example, it can issue bonds indefinitely, and without fear can not repay the interest, because it can control the direction of interest rates, so to speak, the Fed determines the direction of interest rates around the world. America's debt is the highest in the world, by the most indebted countries to determine the direction of interest rates, the result, of course, ultra-low interest rate. Interest rates go down, sooner or later, people will come to the limit, because the interest rate to zero or negative is not the following, or else no one to save, and no one to save money, the debtor on the bad, where to find the money to go back to people what? Now, interest rates have to retreat back to the wall-free stage, so the question came up, the euro crisis is an example. When a child is accustomed to living beyond their means of living, father suddenly announced that starting today, you can no longer such a consumer, you have to live within our means, can not talk to me for a loan, and it should slowly to owe me money back to me. You say that this child how to do? Even if the child is able to do live within our means, he is not the father owed money to pay off, in other words, that sum of money owed to her father is nowhere in sight of the ... ... father, of course not possible to say: this account You do not have paid. Dad can say is: give you owe first and will also be money in slowly. Today, the bank's deposit interest so low, it is because there are too many countries owe too much money, in order to save them from bankruptcy, it is necessary to the weight of the interest rate low, the way, only from heavily indebted countries bankruptcy, disaster will not happen. America will never be bankrupt Fortunately, the United States will never be bankrupt country, the world economy will not follow the bankruptcy. Why the United States even if it will not bankrupt it heavily in debt? The reason is simple, it is because it is only U.S. dollars owed to others, not the other country's currency, and the world only one country can print dollars, and that is its own. Is for this reason, U.S. government bonds are always the highest AAA rating. Accept this harsh reality, in order to save the debtor from bankruptcy, the banks can not increase interest rates, and bank deposit interest if it is to rise to 8% previously, the short term should be no hope. How to reverse this debt-ridden situation? Unless the debtor can be sudden change of character, from the extravagance into a thrifty, and able to repay the previous debt. However, if everyone at the same time a big-spending habits should be changed to frugality, economy how to grow up? It's the point, so do expect high rate of growth, it is not realistic. The whole world hopes China can change frugal living habits, desperately consumption, not to save, and then the people of Europe and America have changed habits, to the thrift, not to squander, and then repay the debt before then, the world's economy can continue to grow, a chance to bail out the global economy without a recession or depression. However, human life can be so easily used to really change? Some people say, do not worry, China's wealthy people can accomplish this impossible task. Do you believe it? (The author is well-known financial expert Malaysia) |
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